漫话足球规律二：难以预测比赛胜负的真正原因是什么？

预测或分析世界杯或者洲际杯的胜者或成功原因不乏其人，很多人被打脸，包括世界最伟大的球员之一贝利。后浪不断。最近十年两家世界级的并在各自领域最成功的组织也在研究。 

Plenty organizations and individuals have been searching for secrets to winning big tournaments such as FWC or continental championships. Many failed, among them, one of the best footballers, Pele. 

Two outsiders have joined the challenge in the last 10 years and they are not common folks but world-class with proven successes for hundreds of years.

其中一家是世界最大的投行之一高盛集团。其基于2018世界杯参赛队的水平数据，用AI技术分析了一百万种可能的比赛结果后，预测巴西、德国、法国和葡萄牙分列前4名。决赛后，全世界都笑了。

One is Gloden Sachs, a world financial leader. They employed AI technology and calculated 1 million options after evaluating the 'strengths' ofthe 32 teams and players participating in FWC2018. Their model saw Brazil, Germany, France, and Portugal as No. 1 to No. 4 of the tournament. The world is laughing at them after the final whistle blown.

另一家是《经济学家》，世界最顶级的智库之一。他们已经分析了最近几届世界杯了。2018世界杯前，他们在对1990-2018年间的所有国家队的国际比赛进行统计学分析后，得出一个公式，世界杯的成功的40%取决于国家经济实力、足球在该国的流行程度（包括在GOOGLE的“足球”搜索数据）和主场因素。剩下60%解释不了。

The Economist, a world thinking tank, is another. They tried multiple times and after statistically analyzing of all international matches' results from 1990 to 2018, eventually admited sadly that 40% of the results maybe explained by a combination of country wealth, football popularity by counting of numbers of people doing google search of football topics in that country) and home advantages, the remaining 60% is unexplainable. 

这么难吗？作者试用下图用2018世界杯前16强的其他数据来解释剩下的60%。（其中各项排名最大为1，8强为平均分6.5分，16强为平均分12.5分）

Is that harder to find a receipt? Football Guardians FC employs another approach based on the similar criteria used by the Economist, to try to explain the unexplainable. 

队伍水平：世界杯国际足联排名和球队球员薪水总和（市场不会错吧）；

普及程度：不用足球人口（因各国标准不一），用相对准确的该国足球俱乐部的数量；因为足球俱乐部是足球的心脏；而且用人均俱乐部的数量，这样排除人口大国‘红利’，因为世界杯32强中上好多几十万人口、几百万人口的国家；

经济实力：不用国家经济总量，因为世界第一和第二经济体美国和中国均没参赛；而用人均国民生产总值。

Strengths of the teams: FIFA country rankings and teams' salaries；

Participation: not by the unaccountable number of footballers due to statistics criteria difference from one country to another; but the ratios of football clubs/population; 

Economic power: GDP per capita rather than by the whole country. 

Note: The Chart is analyzed by Football Guardian FC, with datasourced from FIFA, World Bank, Cable TV, UN. All data are either 2017 or 2018 except the clubs' numbers are 2006 by FIFA. For those ended at Quarter-finals, their score is by average 6.5 and those finished at Round 16, their score isaveraged at 12.5.

无规律可循，是吧？上述各种变量均和世界杯成绩没有对应关系。博彩公司可能有秘诀吧？要不然就亏大了。美国康奈尔和达特茅斯大学的两位国际知名教授，在其最近畅销的新书《数据游戏》中研究发现，他们投注不同职业球类集体项目的联赛的赢率分别是：

No law, isn't it. It turns out that all the variables don't correlate to their countries' standings at the FWC2018.Will betting companies do better than us? Otherwise, they would have lost fortunes. Chris Anderson and David Sally, two professors at Cornelland Dartmouth, authors of the popular book, 'The Numbers Game', conducted scientific researches and found out that bettors won：

足球，仅有50%；just 1/2 the time in soccer；

棒球60%；3/5 time in baseball and ；

美式橄榄球和篮球66%。2/3 time in American football and basketball.

各类圈外人不行，圈内专家？国际足联世界杯技术调研组的意见，行吧？

You may wonder that real football experts may master the core. FIFA's technical study group, as one of them, without doubts. Football Guardians FC have studied through their report on FWC2018 and come up with the following analysis. 

作者在32个队中挑选了10个队（包括前4名）。作者在国际足联报告中挑选了控球时间、穿透防守方后卫的传球、攻入防守方大禁区的次数、进球效率（多少次射门进一个球）、球队平均跑动距离五个核心指标，和这10个队的最后成绩对比。（注：国际足联报告中还有其他技术指标，如传球成功率等，但没有这5个有效。1分最高，32最低。作者也分析了所有的32个队的数据，结果一样）。如下图：

We use the critical statistics of possessions, bypassing defenders, penalty areas entries, shots per goal and running distances and select 10 teams, including the last 4. They are more technical elements analyzed in that Report than presented here but we choose the abovementioned 5 and mark them against the final postions of the 32 teams. 1 as the highest and 32 as the lowest. 

还是找不到规律，是吧？冠军法国除了进球效率领先，其他均不行。如按这5项指标的和，法国在这十个国家中应排在第九，英格兰、比利时、巴西和德国应当依次为前四名。

No conclusion could be drawn except that all statistics failed at explaining the successes. Can you? Except for shooting efficiency, France is outperformed by the rest 9 countries. By these statistics, England, Belgium Brazil and Germany would have occupied the top 4 positions respectively. 

客观事实是，全世界还没有一个能解释世界杯成功的原因，不论是从国家的角度，还是从队伍的技术统计角度。

The reality is that so far, no one has succeeded in creating a proven formula for winning at football tournaments. Why?

可能有人 说这是因为，赛会制比赛比联赛更有意外，因为单场淘汰制，弱队通过后场摆大巴反击可能出奇制胜。但这不是决定性因素，对吧？

Some may share the idea that tournaments generate more surprises than leagues' due to the formers' knock-out format, in which weaker teams may sit back, count attack and 'steal' victories. But this is not a decisive factor, isn't it?

有人说，联赛现在趋势是队员的水平决定成绩，是有这个现象，但这不公平，因为钱可以买来成功毁灭了一切运动的魅力-不可预测性。联赛的组织者正在改变这一状况。但即使这样，还是解释不来赌博公司的困恼。

Some may argue that clubs' successes at leagues are more predictable than tournaments if you count on the strengths of their sqard. That is somehow trending but unfair, since money can buy trophies. Leagues' owners have to do something to increase the competitive balance, since in a long long, unpredicability is how every sport can survive. 

到底足球比赛结果不规律性的原因在哪？作者认为，还需回到项目规律：

What are other reasons for football's randomness? Here the natuer of the sport, may tell, explained by Football Guardians FC.

足球运动不是科学，很大程度是艺术；艺术，无公式可计算；Football is not a science but an art and arts can't be formulated; 

作者在“足球比赛精神之一”讨论的，足球是自由流动的，难能预测下一步是什么；Football is a sport of free-flowing, as explained beforeSpirit 1 of the Game, and you never know what next movements would be; 

足球是四类人群的相互作用的结果，包括本队、客队、裁判组、观众；你除了知道你自己外，其他人的（包括你的场上10个队友和教练组）想法、何时、何地、何行动均是未知的；Football is constant interactions among and between the 4 dimensions, own team, your opponent, referees, and spectators; and you never know when, how, where the other dimensions may behave or make mistakes; 

足球是圆的，任何方向均可能；Football is round ；

足球大部分是用脚控制的，比用手把握球的运行的难度要大多了，意外就多了。Football is controlled by feet most of the time is much more difficult than by hands; and 

您可能同意，或不同意，或还有更多解释足球比赛成功很难解释的原因。

You may agree, disagree, or add up more reasons. 

1986世界冠军阿根廷传奇11号球员、前皇马教练瓦尔达诺话提出其解释：足球不是技术，因为其将人类的矛盾的、原始的、情感的一面放大化了。

May we quote a claim from Jorge Valdano, former Argentina international (1986 FWC Champions), coach of Real Madrid to make it more colorful. 'I think football is the opposite of technology precisely because of its exaggeratedly human condition: contradictory, primitive, emotional.' 

足球比赛成功的秘密就像斯芬克斯之谜，其答案可能就是没有答案，没法用科学解释。这可能是足球规律之二。如果是这样，您还会赌足球的输赢，特别是赛会制比赛如世界杯或洲际杯的成绩吗？

The secret to winning is like the sphinx riddle and the answer is no answer, since football is unscientific. This is the Nature 2 of the Game.

If yes, will you still be thinking about betting on the results of football matches, in particular over the tournaments such as the world or the continental championships?

The cover photo is from Statista; the Pele photo is from Askman.

From: FT Guardians FC